| Annotation: | Methods. The research methodology involves a step-by-step structuring of the forecasting process, which allows for the interrelationships between economic risks, internal resources of the enterprise, and the external environment that affect the stability of the enterprise to be taken into account. The second stage consists of constructing scenarios for the development of the economic environment, taking into account optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic options. The third stage involves assessing the enterprise's resilience for each scenario, and the fourth stage involves selecting and testing management measures aimed at increasing adaptability and reducing the negative impact of risks. The final stage involves verifying the results, summarizing the conclusions, and formulating practical recommendations. Results. The results of the study allow us to make reasonable predictions about the level of resilience of enterprises in various scenarios, identify critical points of economic instability, and develop effective management strategies that can be applied in strategic planning, risk management, and improving the sustainability of enterprises in a dynamic and unpredictable economic environment. Novelty. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a scientific and practical approach to forecasting the level of resilience of enterprises in conditions of economic instability through the implementation of scenario modeling methods, which provides a scientifically sound assessment of the adaptive capacity of an enterprise and the effectiveness of managerial influences. A multi-level research methodology has been developed, which includes the identification of key factors of economic instability, the formation of alternative scenarios for the development of the economic environment, the assessment of enterprise resilience using KPI and KRI indicators, and the selection of optimal management actions in conditions of economic instability. Practical value. The significance of the results obtained lies in the fact that the proposed scientific-practical approach to forecasting the level of resilience of enterprises in conditions of economic instability through the implementation of scenario modeling methods allows for a systematic assessment of the level of adaptive stability and the selection of optimal management strategies for enterprises, taking into account the complex interaction of internal and external factors that determine the adaptive stability of enterprises. |
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