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| Issues | Sections | Authors | Keywords |
Article
| Issue: | 2020 №3 (71) |
| Section: | Economics and International Economic Relations |
| UDK: | 336.051 (303.3:303.4) |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.33271/ebdut/71.027 |
| Article language: | Ukrainian |
| Pages: | 27-34 |
| Title: | Forecasting the inflation level in Ukraine: the indeterministic point of view |
| Author: | Hrabchuk O. M., National Metallurgical Academy of Ukraine |
| Annotation: | Methods. A synergetic approach was the basis for building the research methodology. In the process of research, general and specific scientific methods were used, namely: abstraction − to identify the epistemological properties of inflation forecasting from the standpoint of the indeterminist paradigm of scientific thinking; probability analysis − to determine the form of distribution and probability density of the value of inflation indices, when calculating their entropy; R / S-analysis − to calculate the dimensionality of the dynamics of price indices and determine its fractal similarity. Results. It is revealed that the dynamics of a significant number of monthly price indices in Ukraine for the period 2003–2020 is not persistent. For these price indices it was not possible to form forecast time dependences of any kind with a sufficient level of reliability. The Hirst index for industrial producer price indices (by a whole industry, by mining industry, by metallurgical industry), agricultural producer price index, consumer price index and topological dimension of their dynamics is calculated. It is proved that the dynamics of these price indices has a fractal-like pattern and corresponds to the stochastic fractals. Five fractal scales of the dynamics of price indices were formed on the basis of the obtained topological dimension. The form of the probability density function for each price index with a sufficiently high level of reliability is determined and the level of entropy and entropy production in each fractal of dynamics (as a whole by fractal and monthly average) is calculated. It is empirically proven that the average monthly entropy production decreases with increasing fractal scale. It is confirmed that during the crisis the aggravation of crisis phenomena coincides with the negative production of entropy in the fractals of the dynamics of price indices. Based on the results obtained above, a forecast is made for the dissipation / growth of entropy of price formation processes in the future. Novelty. The hypothesis on the dual nature of the dynamics of inflation in Ukraine in the 2003–2020 period (determined and indeterminate at the same time) was first proposed and confirmed, which was confirmed by the tools of R / S-analysis and probabilistic analysis, prices in certain areas of economic activity with long time horizons. Practical value. The obtained results will contribute to the improvement of inflation forecasting processes in Ukraine and can be used to form long-term forecasts of the dynamics of other price indices and macro levels. |
| Keywords: | Inflation, Price indices, Fractal similarity of dynamics, Hirst index, Persistence of dynamics of price indices, Topological dimension, Fractal dimension, Fractal scale of dynamics of price indices, Entropy of dynamics, Entropy production |
| File of the article: | EV20203_027-034.pdf |
| Literature: |
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Editor-in-Chief
Makurin A. A., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of International Relations and Audit, Dnipro University of Technology
Deputy Editors-in-Chief:
Buleev I. P., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Department of Enterprise Economics, Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine
Vahonova O. H., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Applied Economics, Entrepreneurship and Public Administration, Dnipro University of Technology
Chair of the Editorial Board
Bezuhla L. S., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Tourism and Enterprise Economics, Dnipro University of Technology
Members of the Editorial Board:
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https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8093-736X - Oleksandra Hryhorivna Vahonova, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Applied Economics, Entrepreneurship and Public Administration, Dnipro University of Technology, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6553-7771 - Liudmyla Serhiivna Bezuhla, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Tourism and Enterprise Economics, Dnipro University of Technology, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4067-3261 - Olena Olehivna Akhmedova, Doctor of Sciences in Public Administration, Associate Professor, Professor at the Department of Tourism and Hotel and Restaurant Business, Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6762-8041 - Ivan Petrovych Buleev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Department of Enterprise Economics, Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7912-3649 - Olha Volodymyrivna Zakharova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of International Economic Relations, Vasyl Stefanyk Carpathian National University, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8718-0205 - Joanna Rosak-Szyrocka, PhD, Assistant Professor at Częstochowa University of Technology, Poland
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https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5548-6787 - Jolanta Miko Nalivaike, Doctor of Social Sciences, specializing in Management, Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Business Management, Associate Professor at the Department of Management, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VILNIUS TECH), Lithuania, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1009-4111 - Marat Kuralbekovich Kamysbayev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Management and Mathematical Economics, Kazakh National Research Technical University, Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6952-6030 - Jan Skonieczny, PhD in Economics, Assistant Professor at the Department of Organization and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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