Economic Bulletin of the National Mining University

 

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Article

Issue:2023 №2 (82)
Section:Economics of enterprise
UDK:338.2:672:519.2
DOI:https://doi.org/10.33271/ebdut/82.136
Article language:Ukrainian
Pages:136-144
Title:Scenario forecasting of changes in the state of Ukrainian steel plants in the conditions of war on the basis of probabilistic methods
Authors:Shvets V. Ya., Dnipro Univrsity of Technology,
Baranets H. V., Dnipro Univrsity of Technology,
Hrebenko D. O., Dnipro Univrsity of Technology
Annotation:Methods. The results were obtained through the use of the following methods: systematic and comparative analysis – when determining changes in the composition of external factors influencing the activity of metallurgical enterprises in wartime conditions; abstraction – when determining the adjusted probability of the development of events under each scenario; modeling – when constructing a posteriori probabilities of the realization of scenarios of changes in the status of metallurgical enterprises of Ukraine. Results. The possibility of using probabilistic methods in the developed model of scenario forecasting of changes in the state of industrial enterprises in wartime is substantiated. The Bayesian method allows to quantify the probability of implementation of each scenario. Based on the study of the factors influencing the activities of steel plants in the first half of 2023, the scenario forecasting model is corrected in the forecast estimates of the performance of individual indicators. Taking into account the direction of changes in the indicators, the corrected probability of events under each scenario was determined. The a posteriori probabilities of realization of the scenarios of changes in the state of steel plants of Ukraine are calculated using the Bayes formula. Novelty. A scientific and methodological approach to scenario forecasting of changes in the state of steel enterprises in wartime conditions is developed based on the use of probabilistic modeling methods, in particular the Bayesian method. Practical value. The obtained results of the scenario forecasting of changes in the state of steel enterprises of Ukraine in the conditions of war, which are supplemented by determining the probability of implementation of each scenario based on the calculation of a posteriori probability using the Bayesian method, allow managers of steel enterprises to develop programs of recovery from the crisis caused by military aggression and its consequences, taking into account the most likely scenario of events. 
Keywords:Mining and steel industry, Steel enterprises, War, Analysis, Probability, Forecasting, Bayesian method, Scenario modeling
File of the article:EV20232_136-144.pdf
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