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| Issues | Sections | Authors | Keywords |
Article
| Issue: | 2025 №4 (92) |
| Section: | |
| UDK: | 658.152:005.6 |
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.33271/ebdut/92.207 |
| Article language: | Ukrainian |
| Pages: | 207-220 |
| Title: | Forecasting the level of resilience of enterprises in conditions of economic instability based on the implementation of scenario modeling methods |
| Author: | Bobryntsev P. V., V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University |
| Annotation: | Methods. The research methodology involves a step-by-step structuring of the forecasting process, which allows for the interrelationships between economic risks, internal resources of the enterprise, and the external environment that affect the stability of the enterprise to be taken into account. The second stage consists of constructing scenarios for the development of the economic environment, taking into account optimistic, realistic, and pessimistic options. The third stage involves assessing the enterprise's resilience for each scenario, and the fourth stage involves selecting and testing management measures aimed at increasing adaptability and reducing the negative impact of risks. The final stage involves verifying the results, summarizing the conclusions, and formulating practical recommendations. Results. The results of the study allow us to make reasonable predictions about the level of resilience of enterprises in various scenarios, identify critical points of economic instability, and develop effective management strategies that can be applied in strategic planning, risk management, and improving the sustainability of enterprises in a dynamic and unpredictable economic environment. Novelty. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the development of a scientific and practical approach to forecasting the level of resilience of enterprises in conditions of economic instability through the implementation of scenario modeling methods, which provides a scientifically sound assessment of the adaptive capacity of an enterprise and the effectiveness of managerial influences. A multi-level research methodology has been developed, which includes the identification of key factors of economic instability, the formation of alternative scenarios for the development of the economic environment, the assessment of enterprise resilience using KPI and KRI indicators, and the selection of optimal management actions in conditions of economic instability. Practical value. The significance of the results obtained lies in the fact that the proposed scientific-practical approach to forecasting the level of resilience of enterprises in conditions of economic instability through the implementation of scenario modeling methods allows for a systematic assessment of the level of adaptive stability and the selection of optimal management strategies for enterprises, taking into account the complex interaction of internal and external factors that determine the adaptive stability of enterprises. |
| Keywords: | Resilience of enterprises, Instability of the economic environment, Scenario modeling, Forecasting, Scientific and practical approach, Managerial influences, System of indicators, Components of resilience, Methods, Cognitive map |
| File of the article: | EV20254_207-220.pdf |
| Literature: |
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Editor-in-Chief
Makurin A. A., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of International Relations and Audit, Dnipro University of Technology
Deputy Editors-in-Chief:
Buleev I. P., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Department of Enterprise Economics, Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine
Vahonova O. H., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Applied Economics, Entrepreneurship and Public Administration, Dnipro University of Technology
Chair of the Editorial Board
Bezuhla L. S., Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Tourism and Enterprise Economics, Dnipro University of Technology
Members of the Editorial Board:
- Andrii Andriiovych Makurin, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor at the Department of International Relations and Audit, Dnipro University of Technology, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8093-736X - Oleksandra Hryhorivna Vahonova, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Applied Economics, Entrepreneurship and Public Administration, Dnipro University of Technology, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6553-7771 - Liudmyla Serhiivna Bezuhla, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Head of the Department of Tourism and Enterprise Economics, Dnipro University of Technology, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6520-4325 - Maryna Illivna Ivanova, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor at the Department of Management, Dnipro University of Technology, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1130-0186 - Oksana Vitaliivna Bashtannyk, Doctor of Sciences in Public Administration, Professor, Professor at the Department of History, Political Theory and Law, Dnipro University of Technology, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4067-3261 - Olena Olehivna Akhmedova, Doctor of Sciences in Public Administration, Associate Professor, Professor at the Department of Tourism and Hotel and Restaurant Business, Kyiv National University of Technologies and Design, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1573-7710 - Mykola Petrovych Horodyskyi, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Zhytomyr Polytechnic State University, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2093-5263 - Eleonora Yuriivna Tereshchenko, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor at the Department of Enterprise Economics and Finance, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics, Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2272-5224 - Valentyna Andriivna Pavlova, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Professor at the Department of Entrepreneurship, Alfred Nobel University, Dnipro, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6762-8041 - Ivan Petrovych Buleev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Chief Researcher, Department of Enterprise Economics, Institute of Industrial Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7912-3649 - Olha Volodymyrivna Zakharova, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of International Economic Relations, Vasyl Stefanyk Carpathian National University, Ukraine, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8718-0205 - Joanna Rosak-Szyrocka, PhD, Assistant Professor at Częstochowa University of Technology, Poland
https://wis.pcz.pl/wykladowcy---sprawozdawczosc/dr-joanna-rosak-szyrocka
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5548-6787 - Jolanta Miko Nalivaike, Doctor of Social Sciences, specializing in Management, Vice-Dean of the Faculty of Business Management, Associate Professor at the Department of Management, Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VILNIUS TECH), Lithuania, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1009-4111 - Marat Kuralbekovich Kamysbayev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor, Department of Management and Mathematical Economics, Kazakh National Research Technical University, Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6952-6030 - Jan Skonieczny, PhD in Economics, Assistant Professor at the Department of Organization and Management, Wrocław University of Science and Technology, Poland, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1027-991X
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