| Annotation: | Methods. The study employs a comprehensive methodological approach, integrating analysis and synthesis to re-evaluate the evolution of management paradigms from VUCA to BANI. The theoretical framework is built upon systems analysis, dynamic capabilities theory, and the concept of antifragility. The quantitative toolkit was developed using an entropic approach and methods of economic-mathematical modeling (Poisson distribution, Euler functions, and logarithmic saturation). Parameter weights were determined using Saaty’s Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), while model verification was conducted through simulation modeling and the construction of strategic resilience topological maps. Results. The study presents the Integrated Adaptability Level Index (IALI) model, based on the non-linear synergy of four vectors: digital maturity, organizational mobility, reactivity, and depth of transformation. It is proven that the overall systemic resilience is determined by the «strength of the weakest link». The role of the external damper, which depends on the destruction intensity and the level of institutional protection, is mathematically substantiated. A topological map has been constructed to identify three strategic states: the Fragility Zone (resource depletion), the Transition Zone, and the Antifragility Zone (expansion through shock absorption). It was established that the most effective development vector is «diagonal progression» – the simultaneous reduction of vulnerability and the enhancement of autonomy. Novelty. The scientific novelty lies in the paradigm shift from «risk management» to the concept of «survival management». A mathematical IALI model that characterizes the effect of resilience saturation via a logarithmic function is presented. For the first time, the STRUM model (Swiftness, Transparency, Resilience, Unity, Mobility) is proposed as an operational antidote to the challenges of the BANI world. The theory of adaptive management has been further developed by integrating existential factors of the BANI environment (anxiety, incomprehensibility) into quantitative business metrics and phase maps of stability. Practical value. The developed toolkit enables stress-testing of business models under conditions of high uncertainty. The IALI model, in synergy with STRUM algorithms, provides specific mechanisms for assessing «cloud autonomy» and «energy sovereignty». The practical application of topological maps allows for the justification of relocation, product portfolio changes, or investments in personnel multi-skilling based on objective data rather than managerial intuition. |
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