| Annotation: | Methods. The study was conducted to provide a scientific justification for the specific features of the multiplier effect generated by changes in final demand for the output of Ukraine’s economic activities by comparing the output multiplier with the corresponding indicators for Germany, Poland and Slovakia. To achieve this purpose, total and domestic output multipliers were calculated using the Leontief inverse matrix and OECD national input-output tables for Ukraine, Germany, Poland and Slovakia. Based on these estimates, the scale of multiplier leakage caused by the use of imported intermediate products was calculated for each economic activity as the relative difference between the total and domestic output multipliers. Results. It was established that the average total output multiplier in the economy of Ukraine is 3.04, exceeding the corresponding values for Germany by 0.78, Poland by 0.57 and Slovakia by 0.42. At the same time, the average domestic output multiplier is 1.92, compared with 1.71 in Germany and Poland and 1.65 in Slovakia. This indicates that the high total multiplier in the Ukrainian economy is determined not only by the material intensity of domestic production but also by the significant role of imported intermediate inputs. Novelty. It is substantiated that the high total output multiplier in Ukraine is not a self-sufficient indicator of the depth of domestic production linkages, since the difference between Ukraine and Germany, Poland and Slovakia is considerably smaller in terms of the domestic multiplier, while the share of multiplier leakage is substantial. Practical value. The obtained results form an empirical basis for identifying the economic activities in which changes in final demand may generate the largest increase in gross output, as well as for substantiating the directions of post-war reconstruction with due regard to the role of imported intermediate inputs. |
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